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Archive: Apr 17, 2006
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Exhibition & D-cinema
Page 12
Will better films mean better B.O. in '06?
by: Apr 17, 2006 Print

There is some debate as to the reasons why, but the bottom line is that 2005 was a bad year at the box office, in North America and around the world.

The slump hit hard in the summer blockbuster season, as box office revenues fell short of 2004 numbers for 19 straight weeks in North America, and some declared the beginning of the end of moviegoing as we know it. It was only by the saving graces of a strong holiday season led by The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe that by year-end the overall drop in North America ended up at only 6%.

It was worse in Canada specifically. Telefilm Canada reports that the 2005 B.O. fell to $831.3 million, down nearly 9% from 2004's total, marking the third consecutive year of decline. For his part, industry consultant Howard Lichtman, president of strategic marketing consultancy firm Lightning Group, contests that figure. "I'm seeing a 7% decline - deeper than the States but not as deep as that," Lichtman says.

But there is nonetheless agreement that Canada's slump outstripped that of the U.S., begging the questions why and what are local exhibitors doing to halt the slide?

Prognosticators warned this was in the cards, pointing to the DVD market and uber home-theater systems as the culprits, spawning a generation of cocooners. According to Lichtman, Canada has the highest DVD penetration rate of the measured worldwide market - just a hair higher than the U.S., with 77% of households packing the gear. DVD sales in Canada last year were US$2.6 billion, proportionately higher than in the U.S., with US$19.8 billion. So it all makes sense, right? Not necessarily.

"It's actually the people with the best equipment that also go to the most movies," says Lichtman. A recent Nielsen Entertainment/NRG study bears this out, indicating that those with the most high-tech gadgetry go out to the movies the most, at 8.2 per year on average.

The next theory, and the one that everyone does seem to agree on, is that we can blame Hollywood.

"We attribute [the slump] directly to film product," says Pat Marshall, VP communications and investor relations at Cineplex Entertainment, which saw its B.O. slip 8.6% from 2004 to 2005. "When the product's not there, the customers vote by not buying a ticket at the box office."

At Cineplex, Canada's largest theater chain with 64% of the market (1,269 screens at 129 theaters), it was the tentpoles that failed to deliver. To illustrate her point, Marshall cites that 2005's third biggest earner, Wedding Crashers, generated $24 million in receipts, compared to $32 million for 2004's number three, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King.

"Some of the tentpole films were really disappointing last year, like The Island," says Marshall. "We had great expectations, and unfortunately it was a disappointment for us all."

Some see 2004 as an anomaly. Just as a single dog can throw the B.O. off its game, surprise hits can also alter the landscape, as was the case in 2004 with The Passion of the Christ and Fahrenheit 9/11.

Page 12

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